CRM 2009 Forecast - Part 1 -Sticking My Neck Out

Usually, from year to year, you’ll see forecasts from Gartner, Forrester, IDC, Aberdeen and the like for whatever area of technology interests you. You’ll also see economic forecasts about the coming bust, bear, boom, bull market and these incredible charts which prove that the human species is pretty much incalculable despite the consistent and pretty peaks and troughs of the provided long term cycles. Personally, I have a really complex formula when it comes to my forecast, refined over years of research, observation and algorithmic application. It goes something like eu + gw (l*bl)/i = fw, where eu = eye use; gw = guesswork; l=luck; bl=blind luck; i=intuition and fw = forecast wisdom. Meaning these, like most all forecasts (I hear analyst bellows even as I say what I’m about to), even if they include cool lookin’ statistics or other comforting numbers, are based pretty much on observation and lucky or not so lucky guesses and have as much chance of being wrong as being right. I’m actually amazed that year after year, people pay attention to what we pundit-types say. I’m not sure I would. But faith goes a long way with our species, doesn’t it?